How cellphones can predict where Ebola Strikes Next

(photo AP)

Medical workers are struggling to contain the worst Ebola outbreak in history, with the death toll from the virus nearing 5,000 and the World Health Organization warning that the number of new cases a week could reach 10,000 in the next two months.

As the virus spreads overseas, experts are turning to so-called "big data" to bring the epidemic under control.

Mobile phone calls, airline bookings, tweets, field reports, government announcements and population statistics are among the vast amount of information being collected, filtered and analyzed by sophisticated computer software tools around the world.

The information is enabling data mining experts to predict where the virus could be headed next and how many people are likely to be infected.

While many people are deeply suspicious about data collection — you can hardly blame them after Edward Snowden's revelations about the U.S. government's mass surveillance of Americans' telephone and email communications — it could be critical to containing Ebola.

The intelligence gathered from scanning the internet and cellphone data is helping governments and health agencies in West Africa respond more quickly and effectively to the crisis. They can potentially spot new outbreaks, identify areas at risk and deploy resources to areas where they are most needed.

Swedish non-profit organization Flowminder has been using cellphone data to map population movements in West Africa. This is helping authorities estimate where the Ebola virus could appear next.

In Senegal, for example, local cellphone carrier Orange Telecom supplied Flowminder with data from 150,000 handsets, which it was able to use to develop maps of travel patterns in the region and help the government and health agencies anticipate the trajectory of the virus. The data had been stripped of information that could identify the user.

Senegal is now officially Ebola-free.

"If there are outbreaks in other countries, this might tell what places connected to the outbreak location might be at increased risk of new outbreaks," Linus Bengtsson, co-founder of Flowminder, said.